Disease Transmission Mechanism of Novel CoronaVirus
Posted on 19 Feb 2020; 01:00 PM IST. Last Updated: 19 Feb 2020; 01:00 PM IST.Summary: This article explores the probability of zoonotic disease transmission between bats and humans, and finally expresses a lingering doubt that the novel coronavirus (covid-19), may be transmitted by an airborne mechanism, in humans.
The very first baffling issue in the novel coronavirus (Covid19) disease transmission mechanism, is the statement, that "All human CoVs are zoonotic", implying that they spread automatically from animals and birds. Well, a human being may contract a similar disease, if they attempt to "kiss" a bat, but in the normal world, which might have lasted more than 25,000 years (by ancient Indian accounts), no such thing happened. The big unanswered question is "why bats are transmitting these diseases now, with such a vengeance and urgency?". The bat still looks like a humble creature, doing its own business. So, by all accounts the culprit is the human, and not the bat.
The second issue is the novel transmission mechanism of Covid19. For this, we need to take a good look at the quarantined cruise ship in Japan. Initially, at the start of the quarantine period, the healthcare professionals said that the transmission is via droplets of cough, sneeze etc, and the decision to quarantine looked appropriate. If the healthcare professionals were to be correct, then the quarantine should have worked perfectly, with zero transmissions across cabins. Unfortunately, the results looked different. Now, after the quarantine period is over, many health care professionals are saying that the quarantine is a bad decision.
Based on the information available, it is (now) plausible that "Covid19 exists in the air exhaled by an infected person". A scientific study is required to prove or disprove this notion (or fear), as early as possible, as it has wider implications on how governments and medical facilities have to prepare to tackle this disease.
The healthcare professionals should note that administrators (governments) are not medical experts, and they need strong advice, well ahead of time, to plan, and execute the huge management tasks, which involves thousands of people.